上证指数的泡沫和崩盘

其实,这次又是“标题党”。

7月10日,在arxiv上登出一篇论文《中国股市泡沫:濒临崩盘》(The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst),链接在这里。这篇不到3页的论文,预测上证指数崩盘日期在2009年7月17日和7月27日之间。

摘要这样写:

Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval).

中文翻译:

在当前的金融危机中,出现了一个股票指数,它打败了所有其他股票指数,就是上海证券综合指数。经过我们分析,这中国的主要股票指数显示了经济泡沫的建立,我们预测了其最有可能崩盘的日期:2009年7月17号到27号,(20 %/80 %置信区间)。

这篇文章作者单位包括BNP Paribas Fortis、苏黎世理工、Swiss Finance Institute以及华东理工大学。最后一个作者,Wei-Xing Zhou现在的单位就在华东理工大学商学院。他曾经在2006年Physica A上发表过关于美国房地产泡沫的文章。而那篇文章里,他的单位是华东理工大学化学反应工程国家实验室。难道在2006年成功预测美国房地产泡沫之后该行了?

按照他们的预测,明天(7月17日)就是崩盘开始的第一天。看看再说吧。

一般来说,我很不相信这样的预测,主要是特别“精确”,虽然作者列出了来自统计分析的置信区间。但是,我自己是搞计算机模拟的,物理系统的预测都没法这么精确,更何况是一个有人为因素在里面的经济系统……

文章附图,上证指数和崩盘预测
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“哈佛大学面临破产”

小道消息,从这里看到的信息: 

Harvard near bankruptcy:

…… According to Boston Magazine Harvard University is to face some very serious problems. The University currently spends about 1.5 billion USD/year, it has lost several billion during crisis - including 500 million thanks to Larry Summers, super feminist fighter (essentially, he presented those 500 million as a gift for GS). If only Dr. Summers spent more time thinking about what he was supposed to think about… but he is clearly not the person to blame as they want him to be.

11 billion of Harvard’s money are currently to be repaid to private investors as capital commitments in the next 10 years, Harvard currently has 13 billion in various assets - and what if the crisis did not reach its bottom yet? What if Harvard is to expect more endowment losses? And all this does not include construction of the new campus in Allston which will be surely put on hold.

Sad, saaad news.

不翻译了,大意就是经济问题。

哈佛大学有几百亿美元(以前记得是260亿)的基金,大部分放在了投资领域。然后靠资金收益,支持学校的发展。最近的金融危机里,哈佛损失了几十亿美元。不过,从上面给出的数据上来看,损失似乎还不至于“破产”。所以说是“小道消息”,标题党哪里都是有的。

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